Not a great deal to report, I continue to train but its been a bit of a slog with nothing much on the near-term horizon. I started wondering whether the problem I have with getting (and keeping) a reasonable fight might be as much about the math as anything. Here is how I figure it:
Total universe of amateur fighters reasonably available to fight somewhere hereabouts:
"Serious" Fight Gyms with teams, maybe a dozen with roughly ten fighters each (12 x10=120)
Other Gyms, Martial arts schools, basement trainers (very roughly another 120)
"Drive-in's", fighters who will travel here to fight (lets say roughly 120 again)
120+120+120 = 360
But lets be generous and say I am missing some source or underestimating one or more sources and call it:
500 fighters
This is probably wrong but not by an order of magnitude, there are definitely hundreds and although there are thousands of talkers only a fraction will ever fight in any circumstance. So how many of those fighter might fight me?
Let's assume 10% are women (which is probably low but lacking any basis for the calculation the number works). So, we are down to: 450
Probably half of the fighters have serious experience and 5 plus fights (based on the number of fighters using "early fights" safety equipment in amateur bouts I have watched). Serious fighters are likely to build up over time (as they stay active for a number of years). Fighters who hope to fight or have 1 fight are going to turn over in the active pool as they realize this isn't for them or accomplish goals like fighting at all. I remain in that second group, so, 450/2= 225.
Then there is weight, which is a tough one because its fluid (there's a weight cutting joke for you). Presumably there are fighters across the full range of weight classes but 140-160 lbs where I generously place myself is pretty well represented. I am guessing that 20% of fighters would fight in this range. Given that its more realistic that I would fight between 145-155, this seems like it may be a generous estimate. So 45 fighters left, which is not bad.
Finally though, there is age. I am (again) guessing that perhaps 10% of the fighters are somewhere from their mid-thirties on up. This may even be a generous figure. My suspicion is this is distributed more heavily to the experienced fighters because they have hung around and fought either intermittently or have been out and want back in, but let's just say 10%. That is around 5 guys, of which I am one.
So patience, grasshopper, patience. This is going to be a slow process.
